Vol. 21 No. 3 (1), 2018

Grassfi re forecast at agricultural lands of the Jewish Autonomous Region

Author(s):
Vladimir A. Glagolev, Anna M. Zubareva, Elena A. Grigorieva.

DOI: 10.31433/1605-220X-2018-21-3(1)-93-97

PDF (1573 К) PP. 93-97.

Abstract:
The method proposed for prediction of the grass fi re ignition and development during spring-autumn fi re period is based on the author’s probability model for prediction of wild fi re ignition depending on natural and man-made conditions, and the Australian McArthur model for forecast of non-forest fi re development. This method has been verifi ed on fi re data of 2015-2017 in the Jewish Autonomous Region. Calculations were done with the help of electronic maps of forest area quarters and the network of operational-territorial units (OTU) of the agricultural lands designed at 2.5 x 2.5 km cells. The Earth’s remote sensing data on non-forest fi res in 2010-2014 and information on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during periods before and after growing season (April 23 – May 13, and September 24 – October 10) are used. The highest probability of the fi re effect on agricultural land is found at a distance of 3 km from the roads and 3-6 km from the urban areas. The spatial coincidence of OTU with real and predicted grassfi res and the validity of the forecast in spring before growing season are considered to be satisfactory. The suggested method of predicting grassfi re ignition and development has a considerable practical importance and can be applied in the development of fi re-incident management strategies and measures to mitigate a threat to human and environmental health.

Keywords:
grassfi re, ignition and development, Jewish Autonomous Region

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